Engineering Observations and Assumptions for 2022

Goodbye 2021, and hello 2022.

I hope you were able to safely welcome in the New Year with friends and families, and, unlike myself,  that your New Year’s resolutions remain intact.

For those of us working in the built environment, 2022 arrives with a great deal of uncertainty. Over the next 12 months, numerous boxes must be checked. Firms must continue to harbor new technologies with an emphasis on collecting, tracking, and safely migrating data to the cloud. Efficiency will continue to be a cornerstone of every firm's operations with resiliency and sustainability ranking a half step behind. Firms will continue to be challenged by staffing shortages, aiming to fill unprecedented vacancies. Through all of this, companies must navigate a global pandemic, ensuring the health and safety of their clients (and employees) is achieved through IAQ and ventilation system reinforcements. And, this is just the proverbial tip of the iceberg, as I haven't even mentioned evolving energy regulations, the drive for decarbonization, or refrigerant regulations that are sure to change the way the game is played.  

While 2020 and 2021 did its best to tear us apart at the seams, 2022 is certain to follow in its footsteps. (I hate to point this out, but, phonetically, 2022 is 2020, too — or 2020, Part 2. Good grief!) Now that we've officially turned the page beyond 2021, I’ve taken the liberty of making a few observations and assumptions for the year to come.

The Future Is Clean

The HVACR industry will continue to embrace clean energy. This will occur through decarbonization; electrification; the adaptation of low-GWP refrigerants; and the introduction of local, state, and national efficiency regulations.

In November 2021, the U.S. government introduced its Net Zero World Initiative — a partnership between countries working to implement their climate ambition pledges and accelerate transitions to net-zero, resilient, and inclusive energy systems. Through this initiative, countries committed to raising their climate ambitions will work across U.S. government and the Department of Energy's (DOE’s) national laboratories to create and implement highly tailored, actionable technology road maps and investment strategies that put net-zero within reach. Kudos to the government for taking the wheel on this important endeavor.  

Domestically, 24 states and the District of Columbia have established economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions targets. These goals will certainly include a mixture of renewable energies, which are poised for a banner year. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, as much as 44 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and 27 gigawatts of wind are expected to come online this year. For solar, this forecast is nearly double 2021′s estimated 23 gigawatts of new capacity. For wind, 2022′s projected additions easily surpass the current annual record of 16 gigawatts, set in 2020. This growth is largely spurred by the expansion of state-issued renewable requirements and government tax credits. The implementation of these technologies offers engineering firms lots of opportunities.

When it comes to climate initiatives, several HVACR manufacturers are not only talking the talk, they’re walking the walk. Johnson Controls has committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2040; Trane Technologies has committed to meeting a 2050 net-zero target; LG has pledged to transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050; and Danfoss has pledged to become CO₂ neutral in all of its global operations by 2030 — to name a few.

Numerous engineering firms have also jumped on board. McKinstry has pledged to achieve net-zero annual carbon emissions by 2040; WSP USA launched a new climate, resilience, and sustainability business; and Jacobs has committed to 100% renewable energy and net-zero carbon operation in 2020 and to become carbon negative by 2030.

What approaches, technologies, and climate actions is your firm embracing to further this trend?

Fresh Air Is in High Demand

Due to the pandemic, clean, healthy indoor air is no longer a want; it’s a need. Engineers will continue to quarterback all industry sectors in maintaining healthy indoor environments today and post-pandemic.

Right-sizing HVAC systems to provide adequate ventilation will ultimately create cleaner and more comfortable environments. These changes will be triggered through regulations and equipment innovations, which will ultimately create new opportunities for engineers. Every cfm matters!

ASHRAE’s new headquarters in Peachtree Corners, Georgia, provides a wealth of anecdotal proof. The facility boasts an overhead fresh-air distribution system complete with displacement air distribution in the learning center and demand control ventilation (DCV) that will serve the high-occupancy spaces in the meeting and learning center. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, ASHRAE was already planning to provide 30% more outside air to the building than the required minimum ventilation rates from ASHRAE Standard 62.1, “Ventilation for Acceptable Indoor Air Quality.” The society intends to implement other applicable guidance that has been developed by the ASHRAE Epidemic Task Force (ETF) for commercial office buildings in the near future.

The pandemic has revealed that America’s current IAQ standards are not sufficient. Minimum standards must be improved to reflect IAQ that is resilient and capable of responding to all future challenges, whether that’s natural disasters, indoor particulates, or (gulp) another pandemic.

Moving forward, evolve your firm’s narrative from “Is your building ready?” to “Is your building right?” Sage engineers can always find areas for improvement.

Longer Waits, Higher Costs

Ongoing tariffs on steel and aluminum and microchip shortages will continue to impact HVACR manufacturers, leading to continued shipping delays and increased shipping costs.

Delays related to transit issues, port congestion, container and component shortages, trucking backups,  etc., will continue to challenge the strength of the supply chain and test the fiber of your customer relationships.

In the short term, strive to be upfront with customers and openly communicate why delays and rising costs are occurring and the effect they're having on all businesses. Trust remains a crucial element in professional relationships — don’t take that for granted.  

In the long term, the element of risk may factor into manufacturers and distributors’ business models, which may lead to fewer global suppliers, slightly larger inventories, and greater sales and inventory transparency.

Now Hiring

Data from the American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC) shows that while the industry has rebounded from project postponements due to COVID, the lack of qualified workers continues to throttle growth across public and private markets.

Per ACEC’s second-annual Engineering and Design Services Industry Assessment (EDSIA), 97% of respondents agreed the industry labor market was tight, 87% of respondents had at least one open position at their firms, 64% of respondents believe their firms will see an increased backlog of projects over the next year, and 74% of respondents predict there will be an increase in hiring over the next year.

Clearwater, Florida-based Pure Air Control Services Inc. recently commenced a “100 in 30 days” hiring campaign designed to recruit and train as many as 100 technicians in HVAC testing, cleaning, and restoration in 30 days.

Skilled engineers will continue to be highly sought after in 2022. From a boots-on-the-ground view, if you’re thinking of advancing your career by shopping your skills around, now may be as good a time as any.

Predictions

I only have one proclamation to make today: Your firm or business will experience a great deal of success this year. Why? Because you’re taking the time to sharpen your sword by reading trade journals, such as Engineered Systems. For that reason alone, you’re already ahead of your peers, who are likely spending their spare time oogling at Instagram influencers or venturing down the YouTube wormhole.

I hope 2022 is your best year yet. If there is any way Engineered Systems can help you achieve your goals this year, don’t hesitate to reach out.